A few thoughts on the result and TPT's future. I apologise in advance that this will probably sound preachy, but my main purpose here is to try and pass on some advice I've learned in the oil game and in the wider market generally, because it's obvious that there are some very naïve investors here who are unfortunately but totally understandably, shattered. So if I offend some, I ask that you forgive me and understand my intention is to help, not criticise.
1. First some geological comment. The reason there are no oil shows (or at least one of the reasons) is because there was no reservoir facies encountered in the target. This means there is nothing for the oil to get into, because the rock is essentially a seal instead of a reservoir. I did mention this as a serious risk several times going back some months, particularly when it was pointed out that TPT had claimed seismic inversion had shown good porosity in the target. I made the point that this sort of claim is difficult because to a large extent a geophysicist can 'see what they want to see' and if they want to see good reservoir in the inversion (and who doesn't?), they often will see good reservoir. It's often a form of confirmation bias. I'm sure the good porosity interpretation was a valid interpretation, but it wasn't the only interpretation.
This is also why I mentioned that there are plenty of other interpretations when people insisted on referring repeatedly to a poster claiming that the lack of shows in Assaka indicated a good seal. I noticed that even after I mentioned that, everybody still kept referring to the poster's claim about a good seal. Again, this is probably confirmation bias.
2. Blaming DW or the company, or TPT's disclosure is a cop-out. The company has actually been a model of its kind IMO, in its reporting both before and during drilling. They were frank, their announcements were clear, they didn't sugar-coat anything and most importantly they put the stock into a halt well in advance of the release of the final results. I understand people want to blame someone else, but you're doing yourself a disservice IMO if you do that, because you're not accepting responsibility for your own actions by trying to shift the blame onto the CEO. You won't learn and you will be liable to make the same mistake again in the future. Accept responsibility for your investment decisions.
3. For those talking of still holding for the follow-up evaluation of Tarfaya and talking of averaging down, etc - be aware there is a high likelihood that there will be no further drilling in this block and it will be relinquished. Galp have already thrown a bucketload of cash at this one, they won't be keen to repeat it when the geological model has failed so badly, particularly unless there is a commercial hit by another company somewhere nearby. Also keep in mind that with TPT's current cash they probably won't be able to buy into any near-term exploration acreage, so any further drilling for TPT is IMO at least two years away. Make sure you understand anchoring bias, because IMO there is a lot of this happening here too.
4. For those talking about getting a free carry in a SP run-up prior to spud, and wondering why it didn't happen - it's because you were involved in what was effectively a speculative bubble, expecting to offload to someone else at a higher price, but instead you bought in at the peak. Like a pyramid scheme collapsing, you effectively run out of people to sell to, and that's why the price drops. There is a reason BESBS is the motto of the oil game is basically because of people doing exactly what many here did. You were buying the stock that was sold by people who bought 12 months ago. Of course, it's impossible to know at the time where the peak is, but it's important to recognise it in hindsight. If you're caught without a chair when the music stops, then you either have to sell out at a loss, or see the drill to the bitter end of its 20% COS.
5. Careful about getting swept up in the hype that surrounds a drill like this. Some rampers genuinely believe what they're hyping, others are in there trying to get the SP up to take your hard-earned money off you. Neither type is helpful. Some in particular are so formulaic in their posts that I'm pretty sure they are working for brokers. They are basically writing their posts off a pro-forma - directors' skin in the game... quality management... in it for the long term... spoke to my mate with 20 years' experience in O&G, he said... technical indicators aligning... bots and manipulation all over this trying to get you to sell... I'm topping up, it's a no brainer at this price... etc. Sound familiar? Watch in particular for those attacking other posters who are presenting logical, measured arguments but getting flamed for it, accused of being shorters, traders, accumulators, etc.
6. Finally, if you take nothing else from this experience, learn from it, chin up, and keep going. That's the nature of this game. I have done nearly all the behaviours I have mentioned in this post, which is why I recognise them. I reckon we all have at some time. And to some extent I still do, because bias is inherent in all our thought patterns, it's how our brains work, and seeing through bias is a constant battle.
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