Firstly, you have come to the wrong place with regard to "Really keen on thoughts of people smarter than me."... I'm just having a hack. Secondly, for a noob question, that is a fairly sophisticated set of questions!
I prefer not to hypothesis in detail too much when it comes to the scenario's you've outlined above - I have a clear exit point based on confirmed official news and will leave speculation of said scenarios to those wiser and more prognostic than myself. Maybe someone else might like to lean in and provide a possible 'fallout' synopsis.
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