thoughts

Trying to work this one out - and also to get some constructive conversation occuring in the forum, and wondering just what the SPP will raise. Very little I expect, because I cant see much appetite for it - especially at this time of year - though at least the directors have stated that they intend to subscribe.

TRF price was low earlier in the year, at that time seemed like waiting for IFE to raise financing and then off we go. Since then financing didn't come off. IO price dropped to sub/circa $100 pa. Forecasts (not that I trust em) at $80 - fundamental issue - increased supply. IFE seems to be replanning around manganese, but really need to know what the plan is. Manganese plan before was to rely on the some of the plant equipment in stage ii expansion. Cant see any profitable shipping this year. I don't see IFE as dead, there is cash in the company, resources, approvals, but how to make it turn a profit?

TRF was supposed to have many legs - each with potential to bring in cash flow. Desperately needs at least one cab off the rank to get going. IFE isnt as imminent as before. OGX? Seems to be heading in the right way, but not sure when cash flow will come from there. The OGX Sp isn't impressive, but progress is being made. Twin peaks - TRF earnt its 51% in more IO - but how can this be commercialised. Tin - may or may not be good - but would be more of a thing for the future than now. Challenger/Woomera, Lynas (not much ever happend there), Death adder ... Overall lots to look at (too much, with too little funding). The company has certainly done a lot over the years, but desperately needs a cash earner. The ROL deal was great as it saved TRF and that cash got ploughed out elsewhere, stopping dilution.

The research rebates coming back are also great to see.

Director salaries - looking at the table on page 29, and bearing in mind an 11 month period, rather than a 12 month period there has been a reduction of $160K across directors, around a 25% cut, which is a good thing and seems to be inline with market adjustments.

Overall this leaves me in a HOLD & wait and see position, with the following considered:


Reasons to Sell
- Tax loss selling
- Loss of confidence

Reasons to Hold
- Poor liquidity
- Bad current pricing (all time low)
- Hope - for project improvements

Reasons to Buy
- On Market : Discount to SPP?
- Into the SPP - purely to add funds to the company, to ensure survival, thereby really just buying more time.