"playing a smart move in predicting only single digit growth"...

"playing a smart move in predicting only single digit growth"

What secrets do you hide from us? What reasonable facts make you think double figures are a reasonable probability?

"won't be any disappointment"

Did you read the half year presentation? they haven't said how much lower earnings are going this year other than they expect to earn more than 182m for the half year. That implies a huge fall is on the way. If it was going to be good they would tell you. Why would they not tell you how good they are doing at the earliest opportunity? I can't think of a good reason to hold back on good news. Plenty of reasons to hold back on the bad news. What if it turns around? They could claim credit.

It doesn't necessarily get better next year either. They just sold 1/3 of CCAI to TCCC. CCAI earns about 10% of CCAs total EBIT. eps will fall by about 3% from this effect alone. This means they will need double figures everywhere else to reach mid single figure growth. I'm fairly certain that when they say single figure growth they mean "pro-rata" single figure growth after the CCAI sale effect is removed (only because they say "before significant items" when discussing the outlook). At a rough guess as per my previous posts, the new product ranges are adding about 3.5% to sales and they aren't going to get any cost increases through the market because they are already too expensive so earnings next year will be even but they'll call it "earnings growth of 3-5%".

so.. Earnings between $0.48 and $0.58 and dividend between $0.38/$0.46. At a price of $7 you get a yield between 5-6.5% and PE of 15 at $7. It would be quite comparable to similar companies at this price. Has a moat, limited growth aspects.

p.s. Wondering if there is an easier way to tell when management are pulling the wool over your eyes? If a investor presentation has 90 slides then you can be almost certain management are polishing turds into diamonds. People tend to waffle when bending the truth. They didn't need 90 slides to point out they are selling 30% of CCAI, the small cans are doing good and they plan to introduce a green coloured coke.