thoughts., page-8

Caylus

Data depends on what index.

DJIA roughly suggests the rally after the initial crash in 1929 was about 155 cal days. I like that 155! I had been suggesting Aug 8 (a Sat) might have worked out as a low (155 days) but looking less likely I guess and maybe a high has a chance.

The price gain seems more like 55% as well for DJIA.

I wouldn't get too hung up about exact matches.

Of course that fall was brief and we have had a more protracted fall.

I am still uneasy about any sort of significant drop while we continue to see these SPI discounts. In the past when the SPI has continued to stay at a discount, the market has seen fit to continue up for a year or so with just minimal declines and nothing more than 2 or 3 days at that.

Now I don't expect that to be the case and so watch for the SPI to regain its mojo and then short without fear.