Three Theories for the Great Silence, page-104

Since we seem on a big green day I will add a fourth theory into the mix.

4. The “Share price will skyrocket to the moon if we tell you the truth” theory.
For
(i) CJ has stated publically (via twitter) that 80% of the rubies they are mining are gem quality. In the same conversation he said that gem quality stone sell for US$300 to US$650 a carat. If true, this would equate to A$64 million to A$138 million dollars if they get to 200,000 carat by October.

(ii) CJ still has to get Resolution 1 past the shareholders on the basis that 30 million shares is at least a reasonable price for the new lease. If he were to come out and provide us with independent verification of the ruby grade that matched his past statements then the SP would shoot up so high that this would be impossible to justify Regius getting this many shares. Regius would then have to accept a lower number of shares (bad for CJ & CVW).

(iii) CJ seems to be acting in a way that Regius gets the largest chuck of MUS it can. Regius are taking script over cash for the new lease acquisition. If MUS were a scam why would he do this?

(iv) There are still a large number of options (MUSO) due to expire in June with a strike price of 25c. If the share price were to move above 25c before July then this would dilute the shareholders. This outcome could be avoided by staying quiet until after June.

(v) Providing data on the inventory is an all or nothing exercise. CJ can’t control the SP except by not telling us anything and letting the panic merchants run riot. As soon as the truth emerges then MUS will re-rate.

Against
(i) A figure as large as this seems impossible. Having said that GEM managed something similar with their first auction. As unlikely as it seems, MUS might be the real deal.

(ii) CJ would have to later justify his silence, but he could always claim the ruby grade mix was commercially sensitive. Sorry MUSO holders your options expired worthless.

Very occasionally something that seems too good to be true actually is true.