thurs night tick tick tick, page-16

do you voodoo...?

I think bbankie is a closet astrologer.. thats really why he has lowered rates.. all those people running those elaborate econometric models for him.. secretly, they are really doing the astrological charts of the usa economy.. its true!! Trust me.. this is the tip of your lifetime.. tip of the iceberg.. royal road to riches.. don't miss out.. :-)

"Probably the most influential stock market cycle during the 20th century was the well known decennial cycle. Under this scenario, the US market bottoms in a year ended in ‘2’ and then progressively rises to a peak in a year ended in a ‘6’ or ‘7’ and experiences a crisis and slump. The market rises to another peak in a 9 or 0 ended year, followed by another market collapse. During the 2000’s, the market has been following the decennial cycle according to plan. It hit a bear market low in October 2002 and had been rising ever since. This is what one would expect from the decennial cycle. In May 2006 and February 2007 the US market experienced tremors but no major crises.

The decennial cycle can be used effectively for stock market speculating. According to R W Miller of Triple Screen Trading, “if one were out of the market at the beginning of the ‘0’ year, entered the S&P 500 on June 30 of the ‘2’ year, then were out from August through October of the ‘7’ year, and finally re-entered until the end of the ‘9’ year, the value of $1 invested in 1900 would be worth $6,660.86 in 2002 versus just $148.41 were you instead fully invested over the entire period of time. An awareness of the 10-year cycle would have produced 44.9 times the return”. An investor obviously would have done very well over the long term, by playing the market according to the decennial cycle. Why there is a decline in a 7 ended year remains enigmatic, but it probably has something to do with Moon – Sun cycles.

Despite the statistical evidence to support the decennial cycle, many sources dismiss it as coincidence. This is the most common response to anything researchers cannot explain, even though the results may look convincing. Coincidence is one of the most abused words in both economics and the sciences. "