I'm somewhat surprised that you use the yield curve and I assume by that you mean the US Ts as a australian stock market indicator?? Yield curve is a quasi economic indicator that has some past success in predicting a downturn in the economy.
not sure how successful you will be using it as a warning sign to get in and out of stocks.
Also needs to be noted, the relationship between various rates and time to maturity which the yield curve shows is completely different to the ones that in the past were leading indicators to a recession due to heavy central bank involvement doing various asset buying activities.
regarding your last note about reducing rates to help the stock market, Central banks use monetary policy to determine stock market direction (although Donald Trump would have you believe). They use it to maintain their inflationary targets.
currently wages growth in the US is strong, as is employment.
The US consumer seems happy to keep spending for the moment and the size of that force is enough to save the US from a recession.
Whilst I find your rationale puzzling at best, I agree with your overall assessment that it's now a good time to take profits if you are in Australian equities for a variety of reasons
(20min delay)