thursday options expiry, page-22

I have made much of the SPI discount and how I don't believe it will allow any serious downturn while that staus is maintainted. Perhaps I have been adamant enough to set myself up to be made foolish. I guess it wouldn't be the first time.

Someone made the point that they didn't think Sep SPI would ever see a premium before expiration.

That is an interesting thought. From my observations I don't recall a serious downturn that held lower before a Sep expiration. I do recall I had put options that would have made me millions if the 1987 crash happened in Sep NOT Oct, lol.

So, I suspect that even if there is some decline before Sep expiration, it will rally into expiration and the SPI premiums will appear at least in the Dec contract that becomes the spot contract.

That probably means a double top in cash or minor new high or at least a set up of divergences or the like.

It would seem that SPX 950ish would fit the before expiration low perhaps and satisfy both those who finally get in very late and even bears that got some profits from a downside move and are a bit timid in the face of a bounce hard back up.

Just thinking out loud.