thursday thunder, thrashing and threats, page-7

From this morning's blog...

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Yesterday I was spraffing on about the esoteric winkinatcha MACD "bracketed bar tell" coming up on the weekly chart...

As per the ellipsed area on the chart, last weeks bar became bracketed by the MACD moving averages, and the current week bar, still forming, will I beleive give a good clue as to whether the current weekly down trend from Early April will continue...

'Tis being cagey at the moment... kinda in No Man's Land... a big down day in the next two days would easily pop it below the last week's suggesting further downside/trend continuation, and same-o same-o if we have a flat to up movement for the next couple of days, the bar will be of lesser magnitude, suggesting up... we'll see.

As an example of how this Tell Can Work, the Daily chart two days ago did suggest via this method that we would have further downside, and I promised I would pop u
up the chart showing this so here it is....




Daily Chart

On this chart the ellipsed area of the MACD histograms shows a Bracketed bar occurred two days ago.

The bar following the bracketed bar is of lesser magnitude.  The black arrow on price corresponds to this bracketed bar. In conservative terms, the lesser magnitude histo bar "tells" me that price will go below the low of the corresponding price bar... the less conservative suggestion is that a change in current trend (in this case the trend on this timespan is UP) is in the offing.

It is at this point though, that difficulties can arise as A. there is NO GUARANTEE that the signal will not fail... and B. price has a habit of not moving in a straight line, so there can be some movement within the parrticular timespan on which the "tell" has occurred, and position and money management is important at all times.



Moving along to take a squizz at the Current Hourly...

Note I have highlighted two occurrences of the bracketed bar phenomenon on this timespan...

Number 1... worked well
Number 2... FAIL!!!!... and this highlights beyond a doubt that this tell is NOT the Be All and End All.

Be that as it may... recent price action as highlighted by the rectangles on Price and on the MACD moving averages is showing on this hourly timespan that overnight we made a lower low on price with a corresponding Higher low on the moving averages.

As marked by the Red Arrow... for this buy signal on this timespan to be "true" Price MUST get above and hold on the 21 period moving average.

Not there yet but pretty darn close and I am willing to suggest at this stage, intraday on this timespan, that upside during the cash session on our market may well be the go.

;)