thursday trading, page-150

Interesting to see Eliades referring to work indicating 17 year cycles.

That work suggests no real advance in US markets for another 10 years and I have mentioned that before.

That fits with this year being the equivalent of 1973 and remember 1974 was a shocker.

Looking at that cycle and also the 4 year the one thing that appears is that the first or secong trading day of Jan has to be a sell if the rally last till then.

Shorter term I have US markets having a turning point Monday and here either side of 16th.

While it can be seen that having two corrections lately has meant that price has not needed to decline as much to relieve overbought status the divergences set up now would make the next divergence or better still a lower weekly cash high as a serious consideration for big bear market status.

Another observations is that each successive top has been closer than the previous one.

This is a bit alike a bouncing ball that makes smaller and smaller peaks.

Whether that indicates as serious top I don't know.

Counter to that is readings that suggest too much bearish sentiment.

Maybe it all fits the idea of continuing choppy trading for quite some time to come.

Certainly we had 4 years of the easist bull market action I have ever seen and anyone thinking that could continue needs to review history.

Even if the bull continues, history suggests that it will be far more choppy than the earlier part.

Look at bull market action lasting past years ending in 7
and you can see it doesn't come easily.