9L, there could be another scenario that market will consolidate for a few months.
You should be able to find it out from the past crashes. after 50% drop, market usually tended to be in trading range, or recovery significantly.
In following charts, I presented three typic patterns towards May after Fall Crash:
1929: Recover strongly 45%+ from low;
1937: Intially in trading range until march. And New low in end of March;
1987: Virtually in trading range, and rally strongly after June.
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