Just thought I'd go back to the BFS and look at where we stand currently to where we could be based on it, since boxes are being ticked and it is looking more and more likely this project will become operational.
The latest BFS (from last year) had SFX producing an average $123M EBIT, so allowing 30% for tax would result in NPAT of $86M.
On a PE of 10-15 would give SFX a market cap of $860M to $1.29B or $3.74 to $5.61 / share.
With NPAT of $86M, if 80% were paid as dividends would suggest possible div of $0.30, or a yield of somewhere between 5.3% to 8% at that time. If you picked the shares up today at $1.15, the div could be 26% of your initial investment.
So to me it looks like right now there is potential for a total of 200% to 300% return over the space of the next few years, with an ongoing dividend a possibility (will depend on where they want to take the company. Admittedly resource stocks are usually pretty averse to paying dividends, especially new starters, so I wouldn't rely on it at all).
Given progress keeps being made the upward price trend continues to look more and more likely...
For the record these figures are a little loose, so I personally then adjust them about 10% down to allow for anything else I might not have considered - usually pretty reasonable.
SFX Price at posting:
$1.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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