TIE - Shorting Idea Oct-2022, page-42

Like clockwork, red AM, green PM. The complete pattern would be another high volume match.


On the WAF vs TIE comparison, uncertain if one is over/under valued to the other. But broadly I think all equities with 100% international operations are looking cheap because of the strong USD (or weak AUD!).

eg, yes TIE has an ~A750m mcap but at FX spot rates that values the total equity at ~USD470m. Post tax project NPV @1700oz is USD959m. DFS NPV excludes upside from revised LOM and heap leach study.

I've said before a 5% discount rate is absurd for any materials industry anywhere in the world. But its just to determine the riskiness of cashflows, as construction progresses the cashflows become less risky and equity should converge towards NPV.