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TIE tietto minerals limited

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TIE: Your Predictions., page-44

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32 Posts.

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13/05/23

10:55

Post #: 67755946
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Originally posted by Pimpmyride: ↑

Jman

Thank you very refreshing to read hot copper post by someone who can clearly see through the curtains.

My two cents worth,

NegativesResource model clearly floored in the current mining areas and no honest disclosure from the management team of the issues.Like you stated company disclosure of GC positive recon at circa 0.5 grams per tonne production highlighting even clearer the major floors in the LOM resource model reconciliation ultimately being used in the WACC model. Artisanal losses not clearly understood in scale yet. People stating on here 30 m losses as huge have clearly never experienced this could be foreseeable to see losses at some scale to 100m specially when looking through photos that have now been taken off the website of old workings. Although saying that incrementally bench by bench there will be improvement.A full quarter of production at 9800 ounces with the mill under preforming and no real disclosure that I know of stating the reasons for this. Sorry Cherry production ramp up ect ect is just fluff. Orezone, WAF, Yaoure, Boungou and Whagnon the last four start ups i know of in West Africa not experiencing such short falls without giving some disclosure. Balance sheet depletion in Q1 was significant with no detail given on the plus 40 million attributed to PE.Debt facility initiated clearly to mitigate the risk of running out of liquidity. Some institutional investor sell off although alot of posters write this off as a good thing it is never good when any large investors are moving out just look at the current share trend that should be factual enough to see the effects of this.June market sell off on the ASX.Balance sheet will almost certainly stop any early progress on heap leach. I cant see any banks going further on debt facilities for a heap leach build until an operation that produces free cash flow can be proven. This puts them back at least until end of Q3 before any real progress can be made here IMO. One would think cap raising at 50 cents also not an option.West African wet season approaching making more operational difficulties all the way through Q3.Management optimism and positivity of H2 performance seemingly way out there for it to preform as the best mine in the country in H2 with what we currently know and see.
Positives
Market capitalization circa 370 million USD.
No Debt.
Take Over possibility.
Generally speaking the worst should be over. Grades should gradually increase and stage up closer to the reported resource model as they progress down in the pits.
Very large mill with a low BWi ore profile IMO can easily foresee this getting to 6MTPA off setting grade losses from resource model if the model continues to underperform mid to long term.
High met recoveries look to be have achieved.
Operating profit easily achievable if we are to believe the accounting of costs in Q1 is all above board although I am skeptical.
Advantageous LFO price over other west african countries.
Low cost of Kw from grid power.
Cote Divoir being one of the shining lights in African mining scene currently. Mining is booming there at the moment and government is pro expansion in the industry.

Consensus
Ounce profile to stage up through Q2 probably not meeting the lower end of last update.
Q3 production of around or lower then 40k ounces with mining and plant operations being hampered during the wet season.
Q4 possibly hitting 200k ounce run rate but no where near the H2 guidance.
Mill will see a major up lift in production from my assumption that mining operation could not sustain ore to the mill in Q1.
Small free cash flow generation in Q2.
Summarizing my position is I am a buyer at this level as 370 million USD MC is to enticing no to be although I am more risk adverse then most I would say. Any free cash flow generation at all makes it worth this value with take over possibilities also weighting my position to the Buy side. I currently see the chance of a substantial net fall outweighing the downside risk. One thing I wish is that management would stop being to optimistic at this stage current market cap there is simply no need for it. Come out with full disclosure and start to deliver on lesser targets. Minimal cash at this MC still makes this a cheap stock.
Pimp Out

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well said pimp. great analysis. you warned us around the 60c mark and CEO meeting people here didn't like it. it seems you didn't have to meet with the CEO to Aquire this information. just a proper though analysis. I got back in at 51 and 52c I bought Rob's shares. Cheers pimp.
TIE Price at posting: 52.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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