emr on monday, page-3

Depends exactly how it is reported:

"no significant hydrocarbons" - fall to about 10c, slow recovery to around 15c (few days) pending stokes bay.

"hydrocarbon shows" - peak at 30c, fall back to 26c at close pending testing

"major hydrocarbon interval" - peak at 40-45c, fall back to 30-35c pending testing.

"high pressure oil/gas shows", "oil flowing to surface under high pressure" etc - peak about 70c, fall back to 45-50c

"Sensational oil and gas find" or including words to that effect - peak as high as a dollar, rising through to close, some common sense may prevail the following day with a fall back to 60-70c as people get the message that this means little until it has been flow tested and shown to keep flowing.

If there are hydrocarbons AND the reservoir is as big as expected AND excellent flow rates are achieved on testing then EMR could go as high as $1.50 - $2 on this basis alone. Of course the potential is huge due to the 100% tenement next door.

Don't get your hopes up too high - most wildcat wells are not sensational, odds are that this will fail as the majority of wildcats wells are dry.

Tomorrow I may have lost $10K or made $80K, with odds very much favouring the loss!