Super pessimistic on price. At least 40% higher. Wait for our...

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28/11/17

11:04

Post #: 29172743
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Originally posted by moorookamick ↑

If TIG won't announce sales/ production/revenue update, then like 6 months ago, we'll simply have to guesstimate:

Total coal shipped this season..170K ton
Total revenue received..........$16.822 mil AUD ( infer from Sept Qtr report-$10.319 mil hidden in Dec q outgoings)
Average price received/ton....$99.95 AUD.

Forward estimate production-sales-shipping to mid Oct 2018
Nov ................50K ton
Dec..................50K ton
Jan 2018.........50k ton
Feb..................47K ton (short month)
Mar..................50K ton
April ................50K ton
May..................25k ton (breakup)
June..................50k ton
July...................50K ton
Aug....................50k ton
Sept....................50k ton
Oct (1st week)....12K ton

Total..................534K ton (port has max capacity of 700K t/p/a)
Av/ton...............$100 AUD (see above for this shipping season. grade may improve because of less oxidised product)
Revenue.............$53.4 mil AUD
Cost.....................You guess?.........my guess $50AUD/ton

50k ton/month is the 600k p/a original TIG forecast
We now have 12 trucks capable of transporting 150 ton per unit per shift to the port, IMO,
or 1800 ton/shift with the bottleneck being the port's seasonal capacity of 700k ton/p/a.

By running one and a half shifts a day , TIG has the capacity to produce & ship 700K ton for the 2018 shipping season; that is if it wants to, IMO.

This, folks, is all IMO, only and, short of an official update & forecast, it is probably as good as it gets.

Missing yall already
MM

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Super pessimistic on price. At least 40% higher. Wait for our QLD devastating cyclone season.

TIG Price at posting: 4.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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