Possibly, but before you could properly conclude this, you would need to consider some of the following announcements:
1. 7/11/16
Australian Dairy Farms Group (“AHF” or “Group”) is pleased to advise that Camperdown Dairy Company Pty Ltd (CDC) has entered into a Heads of Agreement with its primary Chinese customer, Australian Lian He Pty Ltd (Australian Lian) to jointly develop, and for CDC to operate, a specialty, purpose built for export, processing facility. This will be undertaken in conjunction with CDC’s Camperdown factory for the
production of high quality fresh milk especially to satisfy the stringent quality requirements for the supply of fresh milk to the export market. This will involve a new jointly owned entity focused on the new business.
==> Has not yet eventuated.
2. 9/12/16
AHF is pleased to advise that from 1st Feb 2017, CDC will be processing its own milk and selling it as
Camperdown Dairy milk with clear transparency of origin from our own farms and the cows that produced it. It is a “vertical supply path” and we are very proud to have delivered this unique product range target since completion of the acquisition of CDC eight months ago.
==> Status of this is uncertain.
3. 19/12/16
AHF subsidiary, Dairy Fund Management Limited as trustees for the Camperdown Dairy Park Trust has
conditionally contracted to acquire 4.2 hectares (10 acres) of industrial zoned Camperdown land from a local businessperson. The purchase price is $260,000, which includes $20,000 to be paid via fully paid securities in AHF Stapled Securities. The contract is conditional on AHF confirming that it is suitable for the type and scale of potential development, statutory planning and is appropriately serviced for the intended uses.
==> Property settled in November 2017.
4. 11/7/17
At the time of this release, management expects the CDC branded milks to expand from less than 1% of processed milk sales 12 months ago, to between 15% and 25% in 2017 – 2018 via organic growth opportunities. Acquisition opportunities could see this rise to between 50% and 75% in the next 12 months.
==> Acquisition opportunities have not yet eventuated. It is almost 12 months on.
Completed preliminary reviews on range and scope opportunities including UHT Milk and Specialty Powders (ranging from organic milk powders through to organic infant formula base) . Now conducting detailed due diligence and discussions with several established key relationships with potential JV partners and continuing confidential developments.
==> Further referenced on 26/3/18 but otherwise nothing yet has eventuated beyond motherhood statements and a likely CAPEX requirement (minimum) stated of $50M+ (>100% dilution if @20c).
A modern, computerised, purpose built in 2010, manufacturing plant with a processing capacity of 100,000 litres per day of fresh milk plus yoghurt and butter operating below 50% capacity.
==> capacity utilisation fell further during SepQ17 and decQ17. Upcoming CF results for MarQ18 are likely to show a further utilisation reduction.
Independently certified Organic Milk processor with essential milk segregation facilities.
==> ODFC JV since either terminated or about to be terminated as ODFC is moving elsewhere.
A contract packer of brands including Woolworth’s Farmers Own and Aussie Farmers Direct.
==> AFD fell into administration in early 2018. AHF cancelled /did not renew contracts in late 2017.
Two main customers, who are also the main brand owners making up 90% of sales.
==> One of these would be WOW. The other, ADF (or alternatively, ODFC if they are counting this in). If so, then own branded and independent supply chain exposure is not that strong (circa, 10%).
New Free Range product brands being released to market by end of July 2017.
==> Free Range Milk + Jersey milk released 1H18 to mixed reaction (especially, the FRM).
The implementation of the first half of this plan will be focussed on using and enhancing current strengths and assets and building profitable, scalable sales of Specialty Milk products under “own brand and partnered brands” as well as significantly expanding and diversifying AHF’s customer base by partnering with and acquiring established distribution networks.
==> Has not yet occurred except for restricted ASX release of 24/4/18 which itself is back-end loaded.
The Board aims to finalise joint venture negotiations with compatible and mutually supportive partners and be near completion in constructing new specialty processing facilities for revenue generation in year 3 and strongly enhancing the EBIT thereafter.
==> Has not yet occurred or further progressed.
Before completion of 2017, the Board anticipates securing one or more cornerstone investors who bring a strong customer/partner in business relationship to the table.
==> Occurred Sep17 with Morrell coming on board. Beyond this, little more is known.
Milk assessments and appropriate funding, is aiming to establish the Lead Roles/Facilities including for:
* UHT – long life milk production for domestic and export markets.
==> Has not occurred but could well be the subject of 24/4/18 announcement.
• Extended Shelf Life facilities for domestic and export markets for fresh specialty milk.
==> has not occurred.
• Wet-blend milk powder drying for Specialty Milk particularly for organic milk and ingredients aimed at the Organic Infant Formula markets.
==> Further ASX comment made 26/3/18. But not really advanced re: substance, etc.
• Each of these facilities will be flexible, multi-short-run production facilities for Specialty Milk – not aimed at high volume Commodity Milk processing or drying.
==> Appears to contradict the more recent direction that the Company has now piloted.
Then there are others including business /asset /farm restructuring etc (at AGM and XGM time). Not further progressed.
Then, shifting the farms /cows to Jersey breeds (in progress).
Then, the organic rollout (more recently).
There are however only so many ways in which 17M litres of milk can be divvied up between different applications, opportunities and /or prospects. Presently, each is a though bubble, with only the Jersey Milk sort of having burst out anywhere near. In between this however, ADF, ODFC have each been lost, the independent supermarket distributions haven't either rolled out or more the point, bulked up, the WOW transition has been a long time in the making (and is still not really there yet) and CDC plant utilisation is down well below 50% (arguably, much closer to 40% judging by the Company's more recent comments).
So, in some ways, moving forward, but in other ways, treading ground.
Expand
(20min delay)