time decay and avx

This stock is acting almost like an option contract that is out of the money! Where the expiry date is the day when AVX run out of cash to run their Phase III trials. The closer we get to that event without an announcement the lower the SP. Maybe someone with options experience can graph the share price decline vs a typical time decay graph and deduce when the market reckons AVX runs out of dough. I know I'm clutching at straws but there has to be some reason for this slump - down 40% since I bought in two weeks ago.