time for a reasonable discussion

All,

I know there's a few new threads each an every single day, and that a significant number of these end up being quasi arguments against one person with a negative opinion on some aspect of PAB, whether it be the tech, Rights Issue, timing of announcements, price predictions etc.

I wholeheartedly welcome intelligent, informed discussion, that's why I login every day to try and stay across what's happening. Do I have strong views on certain topics? Of course, but my eyes aren't closed to alternatives. It's tough to hear criticism of a stock you've invested both financially and emotionally in, particularly if the criticism turns out to be accurate. That said, certain posters you just put on ignore and forget about them. Posters like makattack however appear well educated, have done DD and can contribute a perspective that we may not have considered, and to me I find that valuable. Like every other holder I would love the share price to continue to climb, but I've had a few cold showers and am realistic about both timeframes and price expectations.

Although I must admit I really struggle with charts, I'm get to find a system which would allow me to make a profitable trade with any kind of consistency/regularity. I think one of the reasons chartists cop it from a bunch of shareholders is that chartist is usually predicting huge falls (not the case here), and when they're right they say they told us so, and when they're completely wrong there's alwys an excuse!

SO I thought we could have a thread that discusses realistic drivers of value (for the company and for its shareholders) in the near, medium and long term horizons.

Near term:
-Rights issue needs to be fully subscribed for positive market signalling

-There WILL be a shortfall due to the existence of some foreign shareholders who are ineligible to participate, although this is still a small number, and I expect full take up from existing holders, but maybe it's worth bidding 10% your own entitlement to try and pick up a few more cheeky shares at $0.05

-We have no information on expected take-up of substantial shareholders, particularly Michael Stork. I note when PAB raised capital in June 2009 Michael Stork sub-underwrote $5m. Worth noting it was a renounceable offer, so shareholders who whose not to participate receive a value for their rights anyway.

-Uses of cash. As I've flagged previously, there were a couple of conflicting statements in relation to the arrangement with Onyx. "Given the interest of Onyx in supporting this trial Patrys will not be actively seeking a licensing partner for PAT-SM6 at this time", yet a few lines later bullet 4 says "Fund activities related to potential partnering/out-licensing of PAT-SM6".

-One further point under uses of cash, in the presentation ("Patrys CEO Presents at BIO Investor Forum", slides 21 and 22 outline the potential options for PAT-SM6 post trial, with option 1 being: "Do a deal post current clinical trial" and option 2 being: "Do a deal post phase 2 trial. Raise significant cash and continue clinical development alone". In summary, to me it looks like they're gone for both options. They've got an "arragement" (undefined) with Onyx in place, which will hopefully garner some interest at the ASH conference, but we've also just raised a bunch of cash (hopefully anyways!), so that could mean option 2 is still on the table also?

-I would've liked some more details provided on the Onyx arrangment, and weather there's exclusivity, and if so, whether they've signed a standstill that prohibits them from acquiring shares or bidding for the company until post the trial? Given our CEO's background in biotech IB I'm sure they're very much all over this.

-Worth mentioning again at this juncture that the CFO Roger Mcpherson wrote "Importantly we regard the arrangement with Onyx to be Patrys transforming." That is a big call

-MM data has been approved for presentation at ASH conference on in New Orleans on 7-10 Dec. I believe 4th cohort results will be released to the market before then, so they can be the star of our presentation over there which is truly important globally. I wouldn't be surprised if we were one of the smallest market caps presenting there, so its a great way to fly the flag and meet potential partners etc

Sorry for rambling, I have invested very heavily in PAB, it's the largest single investment I've ever made, so if I come across as upramping I apologise. It's easy to get carried away when things seem obvious to you, even though everyone else might have a completely different view!

Anyways, good luck to all holders. Don't be sucked into selling your shares down towards the 5c price unless your view is they'll trade in a narrow range between 5-5.5c for the duration of the offer. DYOR and hope everyone ends up happy.

Cheers,
Zaskar