Hi
@Scarpa ,
Please see my thoughts to some of your comments below.
'The way I read Elpha’s post is as follows:'1. Dewatering is going on schedule, albeit there was a hiccup, so the question with the hiccup is will Nov/December pit emptiness be achieved.' Clue: If the water line at the RD pit wall was 25m from the bottom, then approximately how many days would it take to empty the pit if the rate of extraction was approx. 80cm every 24 hours?
'In fact the post could be an actual negative because the rest is stuff we already know and in effect what is really been said is “business as usual’ with the remaining elements of that post. That is for example we are expecting MET test results this quarter, because you need them to do your DFS by quarter 1 2020. It is pretty obvious too me what are the building blocks to a DFS, and if you don’t get them this quarter then the DFS will be delayed IMO.' Like I said earlier, my understanding is that they are hoping to collect most of the data required for the DFS in the next 8 or so weeks. IMO that should provide ample time for them to complete the DFS by end of Q1. Also, it is my understanding is that once the pit is de-watered, further drilling at the base has been planned to optimise the mine plan and maximise the total reserves no. for the DFS. However, if for some reason they were unable to drill and log the results by say end of Q1, then it is also my understanding is that the DFS is not reliant on pit floor drilling - given that there is already sufficient M&I resources within the current plan to convert into mineable reserves.
'2. The new President wants minerals development - why wouldn’t they if DRC want to better there own citizens. Furthermore, the fact the US President has been visiting suggests that the US is also interested in what the DRC has, but what the US is targeting is anybody’s guess albeit we can speculate cobalt/lithium/rare earths.' '3. DFS remains on track to the revised deadline of months ago, so missed timelines still an issue because we want that timeline deadlocked (see 4 and 5 below)' Agree, delays are sometimes inevitable (out of the company's control) but hopefully they have learnt from their larger mistakes of the past, particularly with updated management and advisors.
'4. The Chinese are still interested - my view, who cares until interest flows through to a binding Offtake Agreement and/or a MOU that becomes binding after certain milestones are met. And binding agreements are the key to attaining funding and thus meeting timelines in any event. As I have indicated in the past been hostage to the Chinese equates only to delays and therefore need to start playing the game of bluff well here by talking to alternative customers (and see point 7 below).' Agree, and my understanding is that was one of the key learnings after AG departed.
'5. Funding (or IMO known access to funding like through an equity for Offtake Agreement) is still a key - we all know that. They would certainly help the DFS/bankable study milestones for a start.''6. We already know AVZ is expecting to increase its equity in the project, and delays have been had so still no firm timeline on when that will be fully completed.' Agree, however the point I was trying to make here is that apparently they are trying to fast track the process by going straight to the Minister For Mines who has signatory rights.
7. Let me be frank, I fundamentally disagree with Elpha’s view that a Chairman is not important. I see the appointment of a Chairman as a fundamental to progressing the project and hopefully opening up new avenues of securing funding and talking to non -Chinese players. A bit of oversight on how AVZ plan to get to mining a key and holding the MD to account for any subsequent missed timelines a key. A full time Chairman with industry links and experience a key, and if the Chairman is not one targeted with those skills then I agree ‘why bother’. I never said that the appointment of a Chairman is not important. What I said was 'personally I'm not concerned as to
when a new Chairman will be announced.' This will occur in due course IMO and it is STILL my understanding is that they have found their person but a start date is yet to be determined. In any case, IMO the completion of Met Tests, the gathering of other DFS info/data and current negotiations re: potential strategic funding should be the company's top priorities at this point in time. Remember that they also have strategic advisors whom I assume are assisting with the negotiations.
'The rest is just a bit of gas-bagging in a pissing in the wind framework IMO.' Lol, call it what you like, matters not. More looking forward to catching up with you over a VB at the next AGM? Oh wait, we'll be in Perth
. A Swan Lager perhaps?
Announcements are the key and there is nothing in the post that is sensitive IMO or else the ASX would be asking questions - i.e. remember the ML days of going into a TH for stuff ML said.Agree, NF is no fool and certainly experienced enough not to pass on sensitive info.
GLTA
Cheers
Elpha