They do have some business acumen, thank heaven, after all. I...

They do have some business acumen, thank heaven, after all. I was wrong. They and Mawarid have done the right thing. Thank you Mr Ross, Mr Jordinson and Dr Al-Bawarmi, especially the latter. I am sorry for my previous posts lambasting the Board.

However, I still have serious doubts about the wisdom of the last announcement on the Mehdiabad agreement. It now looks like I am also wrong about imminent attack by Israel on Iran. However, the prospects for regime change from within Iran do look to have improved (there was a protest in Ferdowsi St yesterday), so I see no reason to rush to give up our technical entitlement to 48% Mehdiabad for a new, inferior profit sharing agreement: the regime could be gone VERY VERY SOON (I don't think the regime has ever looked more vulnerable actually - and don't forget Netanyahu's bomb presentation at UN - action on that will come before June 2013, I expect). I get very up to date news on Iran from clicking on the links in Twitter Feeds of people like Golnaz Esfandiari (read her articles in the Iran section of www.rferl.org) (she tweets in Persian too - and I can understand some of those now)and also people like Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment) and also Zealous_Iranian (www.guardian.co.uk near articles on Iran). I did predict this further rial devaluation, but with only a binary outcome and with far too many (mathematically random?) inputs into what moves a currency, only a fool would take credit for such a prediction coming right.

I do see we are not entitled to a pro rata share of the economic rent on Mehdiabad (even if that's what the original legal agreements envisaged) in the sense that a Government can in theory tax it without forcing the business to downsize, but I am completely against giving it up for the enrichment of undeserving corrupt regime officials, and I hope our Board isn't going to be winging dollars into Iran for conversion at 12,500 rials when the rate in the bazaar is 39,000. Regime officials now have the ability to print their own money by obtaining dollars at the official rate (I know they have to show documents to indicate they are importing essential food to get that exchange rate, but I expect with no accountability via a tradition of independent journalism they can forge the necessary documents) and selling the dollars thus obtained in the bazaar.

One of the good things about sanctions is that they are exposing the poor quality of decision making by regime officials: the regime no longer has the cushion of high oil revenues to cover up the cost of its economic mismanagement. The anger of ordinary Iranians is set to increase, IMV, as more mismanagement comes to light.

Well done Board for not diluting us out of Mehdiabad in exchange for Wonarah.