Interested in hearing views on a bottom-upmodel for production of the covid sensor.
I think the math looks something like this:
1. Sensera use a 150mm x 150mmwafer
2. Assume a chip size of 5mm x 5mmfor the NanoDx cartridge guessed from the photo in the Bridgewater preso postedby SM, slide 11
3. Calculate the number of chips;about 620 chips using the calculator here https://caly-technologies.com/die-yield-calculator/
4. Assume SE1 wafer capacity of1000 per month as indicated here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants. Unclear what is the provenance of this information.
Suggests about 620 000 chips per month as ahistorical base-line capacity. This is less than the 1M units per month Vtrain reported Nanodx was aiming for.
Price for the sensor is more difficult toguess. In the July 2019 Pitt St report, US$25 was indicated as the low end for a microfluidic sensor (p.8). In the same paragraph, the company “can substantially reduce the price as it achieves economies of scale if competition intensifies”.
Vtrain suggested US$3-4 per sensor. Let’s say US$5 per sensor for argument sake.
So, 620000 x 5 = US$3.1M order for 1month’s production, or US$9.3M for an order for one quarter’s production.
No evidence to support the similaritybetween these figures, and the $3M and $10M order numbers referred to bycompany, but does exercise the mind doesn’t it?
Whether or not these calcs are close to thetruth, one thing seems certain: we are going to need a bigger boat.
