time for some realism, page-5

Yes and No.
Yes all businesses are under review.
The sacred cow of mining to keep Whyalla producing is on the block as it should be.
The consummable business may or may not be up for consideration.
I was surprised to see the wire ropes sold but when you work out most of their major customers are likely ceasing business,or curtailing expenditure for haul ropes and even wire for tyres going forward when you consider all those imported cars due to come in won't have Aussie made tyres on them.
That just made it a mature business without any upside ahead.

6 months ago I wrote a letter to the board which I did not send,but are rather pleased most of the suggestions I recorded have come to fruition,or appear to be on the block.

The point that appears lost is Consumables is the future,producing the goods and likely to do in ever increasing quantities.If ARI were to cease being a steel producer and become an importer/trader of steel,just the liquidation of steel stocks would wipe most of the debt.
It just comes down to ARI reducing working capital in marginal areas.
Hence the big reduction in Capital expenditure going forward.
That will accelerate in places like Alta Steel as outside customers are seen off as more and more heads directly into grinding media.

I will never reach 5% holding but like AG will continue to add as opportunities arise.
Much of what is seen in respect of ARI,was obvious.It doesn't,t alter ARIs intrinsic value or future.
All we are starting to see is a bit sharper management of the company.
ARI has been recycling cash from not productive areas by exiting them.
I see that continuing,but instead of going into Capital expenditure,going towards debt.
So debt is likely to be $1800 AU or so.
Steels so well clamped down it throws off around $50m cash a year in bad times.
And not last but now least,mining will throw off cash that will not be reinvested unless the market changes.
So just doing some maths on cash flow and even bad markets indicates this company can last until 2018 debt repaand any improvement in any of its markets will have material cash upside.
Consummables throws off $200 rising to $300 over the next 4 yrs
Interest is $90m Au .