Lol. I love to be the swing vote. Good report from the coalface Doogs. I guess I swing because it's virtually impossible to value loss making companies, especially bios.
Most indicators are negative. LT downtrend, in 18years Thermalife was never profitable, hype that never leads to anything, high debt, pending cr.
That is the method the market uses to value PNO and the market is and was correct until now. Will it continue?
But the big unknown is HOPE. Their is virtually now growth factored in. It's like saying lets ignore the actual fundamentals (high debt, stabilizing revenue, losses) and value the company on possible future fundamentals.
ie can Thermalife minimise that $500k loss? Will the Gel improve the fundamentals? Is international expansion (Medtrak) possible, will Proteomics re-discover Tripeptofen? OBJ? etc?
We have no idea about the above and brokers aren't willing to speculate.
Their are other methods too. Maybe compare PNO share price at historical points. eg PNO spiked when Tripeptofen was discovered. Maybe it will again. Or PNO was 1.7c with no product, and 0.2c on the eve of two products.
Then you start comparing with peers like OBJ.
You can even argue why is JP buying?
The OBJ link seems to be our main hope. We have 4months of cash left. And it takes 1month to organise a cr. So within 3months we either need a bailout by OBJ or an sp spike to facilitate raising above 0.1c
The buying last friday was meaningless in the scheme of the big picture. Volumes have since dropped off. It was also done in a way to be noticed. In the same way people are criticising the 10mil sell order, you could say they buying was designed to takeout the line rather than slowly accumulate.
Money seems to be trickling back in, and we are seeing more posts from OBJ holders. So it seems a few are taking that particular punt.
The Gel might provide a short term boost to morale (and sp). But it's questionable whether it will cover the increased costs. Will it attract new customers or steal customers away from Thermalife. Price point may play a part.
Also PNO should have sold the Gel better in the lead up. For example TGA doesn't list Nutracel as an active ingredient. According to TGA it's just a Deepheat knockoff.
But Rebel has confirmed it will contain our peptides, which makes sense considering its taking along time to develop. But wouldn't hurt for PNO to say so.
The launch announcement is their best chance to hype this prior to the needed cr. Mention the store count and some marketing initiatives. Start updating facebook again so we know of magazine, tv, radio presence.
You weren't around for the Thermalife re-launch but it was unspectacular. No announcement. The first we knew was when a HC poster saw and took a picture. We considered it a "soft launch" and waited for an actual launch. It never happened.
CAI Price at posting:
0.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)