This was first posted on the III board in the UK by a well...

This was first posted on the III board in the UK by a well respected poster called Bonobo77. I think its a reasonably intelligent stab at how we have got to where we are currently at and a time line for the next 3 - 4 months.

Anybody got any comments?

TrickyDickyTwo



If we are to take Firawa as a guide:

- Diamond drill prog. commenced in October 2008
- Drill complete in January 2009
- Logging completed in March 2009
- Final JORC results due in April 2009 but delays in assay samples meant:
- Final JORC result July 2009.

Regarding Mauritania we know that:

- Diamond drill prog. scheduled to commence NOW August 2009

and we have been promised that: Based on the previous drill results and geological interpretation, the results from this second round of drilling are expected to enable an initial JORC-code compliant uranium resource to be established for Bir En Nar later this year.

In other words, because there is 'previous' on Bir En Nar - (Down-hole radiometric logging results from the maiden Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling programme carried out in December 2007 included seven holes containing intercepts exceeding 5,000ppm eU3O8, with a maximum intercept of 1.55m at 18,280ppm eU3O8) - and because this drill/logging is being done in partnership with Areva ... the JORC may be with us much quicker than Firawa.

My guess is we could get the full JORC report late November/ start December, but that we will get a revised resource estimate when drill is complete (late September/early October?). If that estimate is revised upwards, the SP will follow. If it surpasses the level required by Areva to enter into a JV, we could see some serious buying pressure.

We also have updates due from Firawa in the short term aimed at expanding on the known resource. And we know that operations are now fully funded from the recent placing.

In other words the catalysts for an improved SP in the remainder of 2009 could include:

August: 6000m drill commences at Bir En Nar
Aug/Sept: Firawa revised Upwards
Sept/Oct: Drilling complete at Bir En Nar
Oct/Nov: Positive Initial results from core samples at Bir En Nar?
Nov: Revised resource estimate
Nov/Dec: JORC results on Bir En Nar
December: RC short-hole drilling programme completed at Bir En Nar / Bir Moghrein
Dec/Jan: Areva announce JV with Forte Energy!


Why anyone would want to sell these (if they don't need the cash) is beyond me.