CSS clean seas seafood limited

I do and I've just had a lengthy conversation with Mark Simpson,...

  1. 1,734 Posts.
    I do and I've just had a lengthy conversation with Mark Simpson, the author of the Patersons report and he mentioned another potentially explosive fact-in-progress:

    Monaco has applied for a global fishing ban on Atlantic Bluefin and is getting positive feedback. Such a ban would take 70% of TOTAL wild global bluefin out of play!

    He said his target price of $1.33 is conservative but wouldn't comment on it's AFR-touted-100-bagger potential.

    I'm sure if interested people contacted Mark directly he'd be happy to provide the full report. In the meantime here's the overview:

    THE FISH THAT RAWED

    Value per share - $1.33

    Sustainable tuna returns

    Maybe investors should be wary of any analyst overly passionate about fish but we believe that CSS offers access to a break-out industry, namely full-cycle, sustainable ‘premium’ tuna. With Southern Bluefin Tuna (SBT) having sold in the past at ¥3,000+/kg in the critical Japanese market, we see CSS as a high-value, high-margin, high-growth business.

    What is a full-cycle industry? CSS has invested over a decade of time and capital learning how to propagate SBT in land-based tanks with the intention to grow them out in off-shore marine cages. CSS intends to spawn a new fingerling batch next month for a first-time transfer to the sea in January, essentially completing its R&D phase.

    Why is success for this full-cycle business so important? Global tuna stocks are depleted. Increasingly strict quotas are being imposed and potentially a ban on commercial fishing for the Atlantic Bluefin could be introduced next March. This would also impact the catch-and-ranch industry, leading to a dramatic drop in supplies.

    Wouldn’t consumers just go elsewhere? Yes in terms that top-grade sashimi tuna may become prohibitively expensive for some (to the benefit of CSS’s Kingfish product). No in that there is no alternative to the high-fat, marbled Bluefin in the sashimi world.

    Funding need to FY15 not a concern. While we expect success in the pending sea-trials (the related Stehr Group has ranched SBT since the 90s), building stock levels is capital-hungry. We believe that a further $110m will be needed to FY14, however, interest cover would be a comfortable 4.5x in that year of peak funding.

    Entry level price attractive. The recent surprise $42m funding round (Rabobank/Ridley Feed pulling credit lines) so soon after raising $23m in May has hit the shares hard. However, with clear catalysts pending and given our DCF valuation of $1.33, we see the current share price (and the pending $12m SPP) as attractive entry points. Accordingly we initiate with a BUY recommendation.
 
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