Time Matters!, page-4

Remember that they are spending capital to expand production and lower their cost base. So a good portion of the capex is productive.

So - depending on copper prices - the debt position will grow over the rest of 2016.

But look forward to 2017, and they will produce 32,500 tonnes at a AISC of approximately of US$1.50 per pound. So US$55m of site based cash flow at a spot copper price of $2.28 per pound. At $2.50 copper this would be US$71.5m and US$107m at $3.00 copper.

If you want to get bullish - say $3.00 copper prices - then they will be debt free by 2018 and in a position to easily pay a US$60m pa dividend. That would be about 4.7c a share. With those copper prices, they also have the option to double the plant size to 65,000 tpa and easily generate +US$200m pa of cash.

If you are bearish copper - then best to avoid TGS.

The great thing is that none of the upside is priced in.

What is the downside in the stock price? Could it halve - yes, under a scenario where copper prices are significantly lower and more equity needs to be raised (it isn't going to zero - why would the IFC and RFC allow this). What is the upside with improving copper prices? 3-5x. That seems like a good risk to reward ratio to me.