I totally agree with this sentiment. For disclosure, I own all...

I totally agree with this sentiment. For disclosure, I own all 3, but not in equal proportions. I put together the below comparison of the two.


TMT has quite a bit more dilution coming up but even fully diluted it is trading at around 40% discount to AVL. The resource size is smaller than AVL but I honestly think it doesn't matter THAT much. They will both have decent LOM and decent cash flow with the high grades. TMT is slighly higher, but I doubt it will make much of a difference.

I'm following the momentum in KRC as well, however struggling to compare it to AVL and TMT. Their resource is massive, but its difficult to compare because we don't know what the production cost will be like. If it's reasonable, and they get can a lot more volume out than TMT/AVL then it will be worth it. At the same time, higher Capex likely. If they can't pump out the volume, then huge resource is pointless due to time value of money. Similarly if their costs are higher due to the grade, then once we find equilibrium in the supply, they will not be profitable.

Sidebar: V prices are up and going to go further up. They will eventually go back down and likely go back down below current prices as all the volume comes online (5+ years). When that happens, it will just be a game of where everyone is on the cost curve. There will be quite a lot of Vanadium projects, everyone will be profitable until they're not.

Back to today, TMT has put itself in the prime seat I think. Moved ahead of AVL in the process by a bit. If both can set themselves up as low cost producers, both have big enough resources to not require a merger. I used to think they should but as you point out @Boro76, not required.

Quite a bit of volume has been going into TMT. My rough maths has TMT volume roughly 50% higher than AVL recently. The reaction to the 'imminent' AVL PFS will be interesting. I hope and expect that both these companies will do well. It's really not an AVL vs TMT thing.

Although TMT really has been doing the job of late. Very solid since this breakout from the range of the past few months. I don't need to post the chart, you are all familiar.

GLTA