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the squash

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31/07/18

08:10

Post #: 34636342
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Originally posted by niclou ↑

I believe that TMT is becoming more a value stock rather than a buy-in and reap the short term rewards, that said there will be traders amongst the rise but the volume will be soaked - as seen today.

When you begin to understand that come 2021 the company will be producing ~$350mUSD worth of product, and as at this stage for 13 years it's a no brainer as a medium/long term stock pick for the investor type.

To put this into perspective, the raise to develop will likely be done with equity and debt, I say debt due to the fact that firm commitments will come and the payback on project will find funding via institutional support. They will not want to give the company away with a full placement, even if it is to a strategic long term partner, it would be ridiculous given where the Vanadium market is headed over the next 10 years.

Therefore I believe they'll end up with about 150m shares on issue. Now do the simple maths and let's not even factor in the EPS for mining that often applies the multiplier of 6-8; $350m / 150m SOI = ~$2.3USD per share. You can apply whatever EPS multiplier you wish but on strict cash you get 75% of 2.3 per share. Theoretically come 2021 you have at least a $5+ stock.

Of course this takes into consideration risk, will markets be buoyant, will they receive funding etc. etc. etc. BUT this is why it is called speculative money, or in my opinion 'smart retail money'! TMT will as at some point be talked about in the same circles as Largo, maybe it already is.

Anyway I'll not only continue to sit this one out, I'm going to buy on any weakness that comes in. I still believe it is playing a 3 day reversal trend with 4-5c gaps; buying positions should be between 64/66c given recent buying activity. Will also trade it on any major gap ups with no news.

Good luck all. NL.

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thanks NL, agree on the FA 100%

I am self confessed TA novice, its feeling a bit double top to me, but the FA is so strong who knows...

TMT Price at posting: 72.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Time to breakout, page-1257

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