When everyone says they know why a share moves one way or the...

When everyone says they know why a share moves one way or the other and no news comes out to confirm the trend then I think they are merely guessing.

So I am guessing!

I looked at the top 20 from the the AFS last year and of those listed last year only one shareholder has reduced the number of shares held and one shareholder has dropped off the list which could mean they have sold out.

The new top 20 has a whole lot of new players and 5 of the top 20 in 2013 AFS would have had to buy about 40% more than they had to remain on the top 20 so probably dropped off.

In fact the major players seemed to have increased their holdings fairly substantially.

So I looked for average increases in holdings of those that held and that resulted in around a 33% plus increase in holdings. Thats a significant increase.

Whats more interesting is that the number of shares in issue has increased by 50% yet the volume traded per day has barely moved up from around 66800 to 67500. Thats what I think is significant. the free float outside of the top 20 has also gone up by 50% but the trading has barely moved.

I dug further - In fact very few orders are ever seen for more than 100,000 and on only 3 days did trade hit 500,000 in the past 6 months.

So I think my thesis is wrong - The bubble of support for this company came from the Roger Montgomery post and I think the mention in Eureka re NDIS winners. Outside of that there was no demand - The company was encouraged by the nibbling that took place regularly by the likes of myself and probably a few others like firsova. In fact what has happened is that with all the placements and DRP - I am pretty full up so wont be buying unless its an absolute steal. Even then it wont match my 35% increase in holdings over the year - I am already overweight - the only freeing up that has happened is the loss in value has pulled it back so theoretically in my portfolio it is no longer too much. Not a good way to invest.

Personally I think that it may well go a lot lower in June because those that bought in the 40 to 50 range will want to lock losses into place. I may well buy then.

Has my view of the company changed no - but I think they are going to have to hold their own for a bit and wait for the market to recognize their achievements. I would be irate if they do an acquisition for shares at these prices.