time to buy more, page-34

dreamcatcher - have you looked through the product range plenty of it is high tech expensive solutions and plenty of it is solution based processes. the Volker bed reduces staffing as it has its own computerized motors to reduce bedsores hence staffing - it has an appropriate range of products that fits across all the spectrum and the company has made innovations as well - Especially to after sales service - When I bought in December 2012 I went and researched the company went to their showrooms got a presentation of the products and added to my knowledge when I was in the USA.

As far as it is possible and largely helped by the L&R acquisition this company is in a far better shape now than it was then. The gearing is a fraction of what it was. The product range is better as is the process of management and cohesion.

The budget is a storm in a teacup - Really both sides dont want to tell you but they both talk (in fact make that all three sides of parties - add the greens) about small effective government - non of them want that they want more government more control and a greater spend. However the commonwealth cannot get there without getting the GST raised - The states get the GST so we dump on education and medical - guess what the states demand an increase in the GST - That happens and guess what the hole is repaired. What the commonwealth gov is saying is that despite GST being a progressive tax - as inflation occurs you get more in revenue - thus we have to accept the baby boomers are here and they will require more to be spent in absolute terms on medical. The GST is a great tax it taxes consumption but at its present rate it cannot fund healthcare. Its a philosophical issue - Labor wanted to centralize health because of the voter impact on poor treatment. However the only way to fund NDIS etc is a levy - its just more tax and largely a hole that gets bigger each year. The Libs want to get it into the states where they changes to GST can directly be fed into increases in healthcare.

Bluntly put the estimates all speak to a larger cost of healthcare its inevitable - Its a product of a rapidly aging population. However its how to fund it - labor dont mind deficits as they take a view that it will stabilize and then the surpluses that occur change the game - it has happened in parts of Europe. However libs want to have surpluses to cope with other issues.

So the budget does not stop the actual increase in spend he is just shifting it to the states who never promised no changes to tax and GST is key amongst those. I dont see anyone logic in this debate - Electricity usage is dropping - do you want to invest there yet in health the actual spend is increasing both as a percentage and in absolute terms. They are ripping out some of the increases in the forward estimates not reducing the actual spend and yes changing the mix. I cannot see that a doctor co-payment or medicine payment will affect capital equipment or consumables.

What you are experiencing is exactly why I think the whole circus in Canberra needs to be overhauled - I want to see what I am going to pay for next year - the forward estimates are good but actually tell me the base of growth or decline you are changing - If they were estimated to go up by 50billion then you strip out say 10 billion its still expected to rise. Its also in the way they make the speech - I am going to create a 20 billion this - yes but its 1 billion now and only in years 3 and 4 ahead are they really going to give 15billion but by then they could have changed it again. Its in my opinion big misleading chaos.

I dont know what to say directly re PGC but I have not seen one pice of speculation suggesting that what they sell is being affected negatively and NDIS is good for them.

What I do think is that the ageing population will spend more on healthcare and a lot of that will be private expenditure and capital so I expect it to go well for Paragon.

However yes the share price is a function of fear and expectations - try and get a copy of the actual bill and an actual expenditure budget over the forward estimates - its just not there for all of us to see.

Good luck with you decision.