Stoeger,Just what the genuine shareholders need, a 130 or so...

Stoeger,

Just what the genuine shareholders need, a 130 or so lines on why we should run away when the share price is down 80% in five months. Are you a short seller? Still, I think I can survive your prediction of it remaining under a dollar in 12 months time.

What I can't see is why BLY should have fallen so far in such a short time. Sure it is a trying time but it is way too big a fall in my view. I also think that the only reason it hasn't bounced like most of the others have done in recent days is because of the massive shorting and game playing by the big guys.

This company will do what it can to avoid a capital raising at this time and it has already renewed its finance approval with the banks. Why would it go and have a capital raising after sorting that out? BLY, itself, claims to be the largest drilling rig company in the world. It predicts its net debt to be in the $400 to $450 million range at the end of 2013. I don't believe that is a huge amount of debt for a company who's 2012 revenue exceeded $2 billion. Ausdrill had revenue half that size and it's net debt is $481 million yet it managed to turn around and recover by 25% in the last couple of weeks.

The main reason for BLY's debt is that it has in recent years spent a huge amount on investing activities and clearly that is going to stop altogether. I expect it to continue to have solid operating cash flow and this will be going towards decreasing debt rather than increasing equipment while times are tough.

As for us shedding a tear because Macquarie is no longer a substantial shareholder, oh dear, sorry I can't help. Did you see the transactions Macquarie did over the last two months - around about 600 transactions. One minute it sells and the next minute it buys, it loaned stock to short sellers and it borrowed stock as well. I doubt it's gone for good.

What I think will happen at BLY is that someone like Macquarie will change its direction and buy back in and in doing so it will put enormous pressure on those short sellers who have sold 10% of this stock. Such a buyer won't wait for announcements either, they will just do it. This has happened at Emeco in the last few days. First Samuel bought 8,230,000 EHL shares in three days and the stock has gone up 20% in that time.

I had a look at MDI on the Toronto Stock Exchange as you suggested. It has gone up in price just a little since the middle of April while BLY has halved. I go for the neglected ones!

GPASAS