time to buy, page-4

At the risk of damping the spirits of the die-hard TITANs on this thread, I disagree with the statement “time to buy”.

I’ve been reading this thread for almost a year now and have been a holder of TTE since May 2012.
I really believed we had a multi-bagger with the “potential company-making discovery” just before Easter this year.
I kept averaging down until I was at 1.2c cost.

This week I sold all of my heads for 0.7c which is about 42% loss
I can live with a 42% loss, but I’m not prepared to risk a 100% loss.
I knew the risks before getting in and I’m comfortable with my decision to realize the loss.
I still hold a few oppies, but have mentally written them off because they’re almost worth nothing.
It is possible management can pull a rabbit out of the hat in the near future and turn the company around, but in my opinion it is very unlikely.
In FY2013 TTE did become a producer and can expect forward sales of approx. $1 million per quarter. But for how long? Maybe a year or two. I don’t know.
They do have a loan facility for $400k (see Appendix 5B) and yes garner has chipped in a million, but I believe they will burn through this very quickly.
And guys, please stop banging on about directors “having skin in the game”. I know it is encouraging, but really…

My reasons for selling are:

1. Too many shares on issue. They raised approx. $10million through share issues FY2013 and have spent every cracker and then some.
2. I believe there is no drilling timetable or plan because they don’t know how to fund it. Caprock drill, while cheap, is considered “rank wildcat” (see ASX ann. 25 June 2013, first page, last paragraph). The explanations of delays has not been satisfactory for me.
3. The capital raising after the “discovery” was apparently to “facilitate the Company’s on-going exploration programme, in particular its plans to aggressively follow up the exciting recent oil discovery at Allen Dome in Texas.” (See ASX announcement 12 April 2012, first page, 4th paragraph.) What drilling has been done at Allen Dome in the 4 months since that announcement? Where did the money go? Am I missing something? I thought “aggressively follow up” would mean like in the same quarter. Here we are 4 months down the track and we don’t have a drilling plan/timetable.
4. No cash. I believe they will have to do a capital raising in or before Q4 this year, which will have a seriously negative effect on share price. See Appendix 5B released on 31 July 2013. I’m not an accountant, but I’m educated enough to understand these cash flow statements. I compared these cash flows to the FY2011 and FY2012, which can be found in the “2012 Annual Report” on Titans website, and summarized what I believe are the issues.

Net Cash Outflow used in Operating Activities:
FY2011 -$1.16 million….FY2012 -$2.04 million……FY2013 -$9.2 million

Net Cash Outflow used in Investing Activities:
FY2011 -$0.30 million….FY2012 -$1.16 million……FY2013 -$1.89 million

Net Cash Inflow from Financing Activities:
FY2011 +$2.50 million….FY2012 +$4.37 million……FY2013 +$9.67 million

Cash at End of Year:
FY2011 +$1.17 million….FY2012 +$2.33 million……FY2013 +$1.05 million

(NOTE: These are just the highlights I find interesting. It is not intended to be a cash summary.)

Sincerely wish long termers best of luck.

Now, I’m off to my gamblers anonymous meeting…. ?