TIME TO CANCELL $400 BILLION AUKUS SUBS !!!, page-71

You are right, those circumstances above are probably less likely to occur within the near future, but really who knows. Should we develop our defence strategy based on everything staying calm, no shocks ever occurring, & all parties respecting national sovereignty? Not sure how well that's worked throughout human history.

Within those circumstances, it also doesn't need to get to the point of war as such. The Chinese could simply threaten blockading of trade lanes to coerce our Government into making decisions they otherwise would not.

We aren't part of NATO, the closest thing we have to article 5 is ANZUS. Without a US ally, we are cooked. Unaligned, non-nuclear nations with small conventional forces are easily pushed around. Ask some of the smaller countries in the South China Sea about that.

The Chinese don't want AUKUS, they want every country acting independently. They want this because smaller, independent countries are easier to control & coerce. There's a reason the Japanese, South Koreans & potentially Canada are wanting in on pillar 2 of AUKUS.

Cheers!