time to feel good about cvn, page-11

lawrie: Regardless of any future announcements, it is as I understand it producing a net 3000 bod, which at a current (unhedged but discounted) price of, say, $130 bl, and assuming downtime of 20% is a gross income of US$113 mil.

Its production costs are modest and even if total operational, marketing and exploration costs amounted to 50% (so about US$65 bl, which is high), that would leave a net income of US$56.5 mil.

At a PE of, say, 10 times current earnings, that would justify a Au$600 mil cap company, not the approximately $350 mil we have today.

I have, of course, not risked for soverign risk (including currency and tax effects).

So, IMO even were no more production to come on line, CVN is significantly undervalued and has room to rise. That said, my projections are more positve than the above and I have much confidence in the management.