Your post is not all that crazy and it would be anyones guess where the shareprice will stop once Tamiflu is totally condemmed and the swineflu has mutated.
A company that get 7% of all sales of a product that the whole world want and desperatly needs and that cost around $25 for each packet, is worth quite some money imho.
Say that GSK increases production to 200 million courses per annum that would be $5 billion in sales and $350 million for Biota in royalties.
With pressure from governments around the world GSK could well be forced to do this at a time when Relenza is the only weapon left as a first defence.
Ofcourse Lani would be fast tracked in such situation and should also contribute to the earnings.
Having this scenario portraying itself in the next 24 months or so we could be looking at Biota with a Mcap of say $3.5 billion and a P/E of 10. If this was to happen we have a shareprice of around the $20 attached to it.
Ofcourse this may never happen but just have a look at Gilead and Tamiflu that gave the company a Mcap of $41 Billion!!!
With Relenza still a couple of years in patent and Lani taking over we could get our $20 per share for a product that the whole world needs,it happened with Gilead and Tamiflu.
Its ofcourse still early to be sure what will happen but I for one will NOT say that this could not happen with all the info we have so far.
I topped up today and will do again as long as the positive news for Relenza keeps coming in, because I know that the shareprice will eventually follow......
Good luck to all holders and please do your own research because I am biased towards this company as I have heaps of Biota shares.
jojo
BTA Price at posting:
$1.30 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
