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roadkillgourmet,

Oil has a history of manipulation up and down as supply has been plentiful and controlled (most of the time to maximise profits without killing the industries that rely on it) Was never my view that oil wouldn't come back to $50.

Oil in my opinion will over time be on a downward path in terms of usage in the future (longer-term perspective). The lower usage may be tempered by the reduced availability, however, alternatives to oil as an energy source for the future are plentiful.

Phosphate is another kettle of fish. The demise of oil will ironically potentially be 'fuelled' by the increased usage of ethanol, and that in my opinion will be one driver for the future. The other major factor for the short-term is that the availability of high quality phopshate is diminishing (as has been widely publicised). This is critical as the phosphate price was in the past controlled by basically one region and subsidised by the government to maintain control. They have stripped most of the quality phosphate and now have to look at some major infrastructure costs to maintain production. The cost of production will never be the same for them.

Phosphate usage is on the increase. Its a necessity of life, very different dynamic to the price of oil. There will be a short-term squeeze. As has been stated there is no argument about the world class quality of the MAK resource. They are in the perfect position as a near-term producer to capitalise on this.

In summary, it is impossible for phosphate to go back to $50 and maintain a viable production industry. And you cannot stop using it or reduce its usage to any great effect, so logically where do we really think phosphate price is heading in the future?