time to hail king fatty and the spin king, page-10

ok , here goes......
some potential volume and price indicators....
let's make some scenario assumptions.....
there could be any number of variations which have an effect on the buy /sell volumes and sp.

assumptions
1.the news...we are talking mt caudian iron ore jv drill results with CAZ
2.the news.... comes out tmorrow or monday.
3.the results ....are at the higher end of the million cubic metre tonnage
4.there is some reference to..... moving the resource from inferred resource to indicated to probable or to measured or proven. see the article on the asx titled "reading mining company reports" reference http://www.asx.com.au/resources/newsletters/investor_update/20060214_reading_mining_company_reports.htm#

5.any additional exploration or joint venture news which is good, will be a further positive for the sp.
6.The gda shares have been oversold due to profit taking by recipients of shares in the rights issue.
7.The VWAP over the last 9 days of trading (4.2c) reflects the average market value of gda and the opening price.
8.the all ordinaries has been falling for a 9th day in a row, which is the most in the last 12 years,

It would be expected that the much anticipated news could see strong interest in buying Gondwana at the recommencement of trading in Gondwana and that the buy volumes might increase from the pre open figures currently of 31m and a sell volume of 49m to 50/50.
I think there is probably still a lot of sellers of shares taken up in the rights issue that want to take a profit to free carry their shares or convert options. Good news will see a lot of them increase their price they offer their shares but I don't think they will withdraw their shares. For the sell volumes to drop to the scarce quantity of say 20m shares or under , there would need to be a repeat of the buying strength which was triggered by the exploration update on the 4th ( just a fortnight ago).
The buy sell ratio was 48/19 at 10.14am on monday the 7th, at 1020 the ratio was 56/10 and at 1100hrs the ratio was 78m shares on the buy side and 39m the sell.
Tomorrow will mark the half way point in the 30 day re rating talked about a week and a bit ago.
If the buy volumes increase quickly and some record turnover is looking a possiblity, the buy volume could push up to around the 80m volume area. Very hard to predict but it would not surprise me if the buy sell ratio repeated that which occurred on the 8th of this month, when they were 79/19,76/28,78/35 at various times during the day. On that day there were about 29m shares on the buy side above 5 c and 15m below 6c on the sell side.( check figures in the post reviewing trading on the 8th) The vwap was 5.5c with 229m shares traded with a value of $12.7m.
The scenario when the shares recommence could potentially start the day from a low 5c level if similar demand occurs.
Warnie's suggested price highs are possible but i think the highs could be more like the mid 9c levels by the end of the month but if that price is reached on Monday (or tomorrow ) I wouldn't be complaining.

I'd expect that the options to begin to reflect tru value and the usual premium as the main share increases in strength and price.

Remember these are just hypothetical scenarios and should not be used to make investment decisions or be expected to occur. They are not predictions just observations of potential scenarios.
cheers FS.