I'm not sure I understand your point orion? If you're talking about the ability to block compulsory acquisition in a takeover then you're right, as anyone who holds more than 10% can stop this occurring due to the 90% threshold, so Stork with c.14% of issued cap could block a takeover.
There can't be a 'few' holders controlling 50% of the stock due to the need to disclose substantial shareholdings (5%+), simply not possible. If you're talking about controlling 50% of vol traded then yes I wouldn't disagree, it doesn't take a lot of $ to push an illiquid stock where you want it to go, but I seriously doubt anyone is pushing it down intentionally, more likely switching out of PAB to companies with a perceived better short term return (such as PSY and ADO).
Re. secondary listings, they're expensive to administrate, usually poorly received, and often result in flowback from the CDI to the head stock. The only way I think it would work is by delisting from ASX and relisting elsewhere. I don't think that would ever happen. As such, the only real option for PAB is to let PAT-SM6 do the talking. They need to release the full and final results and heavily market them. That's what will attract new investors.
I know PAB is hardly a priority/do or die for Onyx, but I can't believe they are yet to make a single public statement about the IST (to my knowledge). If I was running PAB I'd be encouraging Onyx to put out a simple one page release noting PAB's success to date in refractory MM patients, and expressing interest in the upcoming trial. Surely that would've helped them place the shortfall? That alone should be sufficient to generate some interest in PAB and take the sp up to a more sensible level. My personal opinion is that they should be trading around 8 cents based on the current state of play, reflecting the unknown result of the IST. Does anyone feel a market cap of c.$60m is really demanding for these guys given OD, IST, phase II results etc?!
Well I'm going to keep holding. I've been surprised by the lack of disclosure around the tie-up with Onyx, there's been no mention of exclusivity and yet we're no longer seeking outlicensing partners for SM6? What happened to the concept of competitive tension as a means to retain price leverage? I just hope there's more to it than the company is letting on...
Good luck to all, but I think PAB will remain in the bottom drawer for a while yet. I hope I stay solvent longer than the market remains irrational!!
Z
PAB Price at posting:
4.3¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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