the key word is LOCKDOWN - even a partial lockdown had blunted the exponential spread.

if no Lockdown, then look towards the India experience.

btw, for those interested - the TRUE death count in India was somewhere between 4 to 10 times higher.

India's Pandemic Death Toll Estimated At About 4 Million: 10 Times The Official Count

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/20/1018438334/indias-pandemic-death-toll-estimated-at-about-4-million-10-times-the-official-co

If India was to accurately account for all the Covid-19 deaths in the country, it would likely double the confirmed global death toll for 2021.

The country may have undercounted its pandemic fatalities by seven or eight times,a new studyconducted by researchers in India, Canada, and the US has found. This would take India’s Covid-19 mortality fromthe official 422,022to between 3.1 and 3.4 million.

https://qz.com/india/2039756/indias-actual-covid-19-death-toll-could-be-eight-times-higher/

Now, think about those numbers for a minute.

What would happen here if No lockdown (even a partial one like in NSW)?