The worst news about the Congo Government review is now on the table. Ready for negotiation.
This will be one of Bill Turner's greatest challenges.
Getting Dikulushi project off the ground was by far the greatest challenge of all. Next was the action of Congo rebels in and around Diku. The Slater and Gordon actions which may still be with us was perhaps the most emotional sapping period. Now the Review process.
The Review process may be the least of previous challenges. Not that it should be underestimated.
Progress from now on should surely be positives.
Are the "Buy Now" bells ringing? I think so.
Much of what is expected from Anvil seems to be expected from all mining companies. Those companies that have come on the scene lately appear to have agreements with the Government more in line with the review process and consequently are going through less pain. Hence the cheers and surge in share price - 30%? in some cases.
Much of what the review process is demanding of Anvil is likely to be non negotiable. Providing BT can arrange for some accommodation - perhaps for example paying the $150 million over ten years, or longer period, the situation will be resolved in a positive manner.
Once agreement has been reached Anvil share price will be re-rated. The present fiasco will appear less enormous and memories will fade relatively quickly. Anvil share price will surge over the next two or three years as production moves towards doubling and efficiencies (smelter - higher prices for product - less transport cost, etc) will make the increased copper production even more beneficial on the bottom line profits. Copper price is of course an essential ingredient in profit outlook for the future.
JUST AN ASIDE. If the Australian Government took a similar approach to BHP, RIO, etc and demanded a greater share of the huge dividends from quarrying our iron reserves how would Australians view such action? How would you view the situation? - BHP and RIO shareholders excepted.
The bad news is all with us. Must be relatively down hill (sort of) from now on.
What is critical will be that this review should be the foundation of long term certainty.
Long term certainty and stability in the Congo will be a greater positive for Anvil (and share price)after the pain of the Review than the uncertainty of the past - known as Sovereign Risk has been a negative.
AVM Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
