time to reassess

I have been fairly negative towards BTU and its management for a while, with plenty of reasons to be as well. I was intending to sell on relist, but I couldn't even manage that as the company manage to relist about 1pm and I didn't have any standing sell orders (was expecting them to relist at open one day).

So, seeing as I missed selling at 15cents, I have decided to hold for the time being. I thought I should go back and reassess their prospects, some thoughts below:

The coal price in the US is rising again, with 13,000BTU seeing a good jump this week (see link) http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html
This has 2 positives for BTU:
- we may see some of the $5mil royalty we are expecting out of C&R once coal rises above $65US, probably needs to hit $70 really (where the sales price, less applicable transport expense, exceeds US$65.00 per ton;)
- it improves the economics of the newly acquired mine (still not sure how we are really paying for this!)

It looks like Thermal is about to take off again, with China, India and South Africa all needing heaps of it......can't see us exporting any, but all helps the demand curve.
http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2010/February/thermal-coal-investments.html - China becomes a net importer of thermal coal.

so, will sit back and watch developments for a while. With only 80 mil shares on issue again, it will be interesting if this moves up, at what point does someone have a nibble at the options?