Consolidated Minerals Limited (CSM)
Recommendation Upgrade
Recommendation 12/10/2005: Accumulate
We upgrade our forecasts for manganese ore prices. We now expect stable contract prices until March 2007 before declining from the current price of US$3.99/dmtu or US$190/t to our long term assumption of US$3.00/dmtu or US$140/t by April 2010.
As a result of the upgrade our FY06 NPAT forecast rises 4.9% to $114.4m and our FY07 forecast increases by 20.8% to $113.9m. Next year's forecast NPAT is more leveraged to the higher prices as the current contract applies until March 2006. Our valuation moves up 5.0% to $4.20ps
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