Time to Sell?…, page-8

As a very long term holder, able to buy lots at pennies, like others here, and sell (not enough) when the SP punched through $10, I have been more than happy to be a passive holder over the last year or so.

I have learned engaging in daily posts tends to rivet the mind into either a bullish or bearish mindset. Keeping a distance from the noise has helped me at least, to retain a more balanced approach to a stock I absolutely love and a management team lead by AL that has been nothing short of dedicated to creating shareholder value and a viable long term ROW supplier of REE outside of China.

I have been waiting for a 5 handle. but absolutely not wanting it, to offer another chance to re-purchase and accumulate the stock I have sold over the last 3 years.

Many of my followers know I have sought to retain a high level of cash for opportunities I believe will be everywhere in 2024. That time has not yet come.

The recent Au then U3O8 SP explosion has offered an unbelievable opportunity to sell into strength which has been an unexpected win. On the other hand, I still carry some large losses on a couple of recent punts, that have not worked but I retain them for their alpha and exceptional leverage to their particular industry segements.

We all have winners and losers and I know I can be just as big a mug as anyone else.

When it comes to Lynas, one has to realise that the company does not operate in isolation. It has serious issues confroting it aside from China's near total control of the REE commodity complex including political risks, logistics risks and processing risks, timing risks and of course market risks. Over time, each of these will prove to be a headwind and other times a tailwind.

To anyone who bought at low prices, the current share price and production issues seem trivial to the times when without JARE, we stared into the abyss. For those who purchased at much higher prices, one can imagine they feel gutted buying into a company that promised so much upside and Western independence. We have all been there but in my opinion, sticking fat is pretty important for the next year or 2. I can only suggest, for anyone who can afford to hold, stay the course. For anyone who can afford to buy, accumulate at current prices and even down into the $5 (or $4) price points over the next 12 months.

I am very bullish over a 5 year time horizon on the commodity and the company and do not eliminate the prospect of a takeover by a larger miner. Remember Wesfarmers' crazy offer of, what was it $2.35 after the stock had tanked a few back? Nothing is out of bounds when it comes to critical energy stocks. But 5 years is 5 years.

I won't mention the stock by name, but Australia's largest uranium producer was 10c 5 years ago, battling to stay in business. A week or so ago it was over $1. In between, it has lots of blips both up and down to test the resolve of even the most disciplined investor, to believe in nuclear energy and believe in a single stock. That is what 5 years can be like! I think Lynas will have a future 5 year journey along the same path, but starting from a way higher price point, means the upside will probably be a lot less than a 10 bag stock. If it got to $12 -$15 (my guess only) most here should feel pretty chuffed and 2023 will not even be remembered, except that we shoulda/coulda/woulda bought more stock.

My sentiment remains hold, but I am ready to start accumulating below $6. If the price deteriorates further, you can bet, all other things being equal, I will be a buyer as I expect will most of the old crew who supported the company when it was near extinction. We all owe the Japanese our gratitude when successive Australian governments looked the other way in favour of iron ore and other bulk commodities. Most Western politicians can only think as far as what will get them votes in the next election. Energy dependant countries, we all know who they are, have to think longer term (except those really smart then really nutty Germans).

GLTASH