thanks Sici.
Now we have Afterpay risimg higher, affirms market cap increasing I'm going to do a quick spreadsheet of TTV and revenues and some other basic metrics, once I have latest quarterly data to compare Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay, and Zip. These are the top four outside PayPal that are pure bnpl offerings that generate more than 90 percent of their revenues (whether from merchant or customers account keeping fees).
I want to look at Afterpay, Klarna and Affirm, they all do more revenue currently than Zip, I will look a year or two back and see if I can get some graph points on growth of customers, TTV, revenue, bad debts, losses etc.
While Sezzle is a pure play bnpl too I think they are ripe for a take over given their small revenue base (they are like a Quadpay essentially for Canada). Crazy to think that Zip was able to acquire quadpay for 420 million when Sezzle has a market cap of 1.43 billion currently.
some quick numbers for you comparing Sezzle and Quadpay;
Sezzle 419 million AUD TTV for Q42020
Quadpay in October and Nov alone did 424 million AUD in TTV; still have the entire of December TTV to include which I will estimate will be as as Nov let's be conservative at 250 million for Dec. This alone would put Quadpay results at 675 million for Q42020 ( more than 50 percent larger than Sezzles entities global business)
sezzle had 2.2 million customers at end Q42020.
Quadpay had 2.8 million customers at end of November and with 581 K downloads in November we saw 300k new customers added in November alone(>50%conversion of app download to customer). So with sensortower data for Dec is showing the same 500k downloads for quad in Dec we can expect a similar 250-300k new customers in Dec totalling 3.1 million customers for q42020; 40 percent more than Sezzle.
the size of Quadpays tam is 5 trillion just with the US vs Sezzles.main market of Canada is what, a 10th of this or less? Canada has about 1/8 the population of the US.
sorry I'm blown away just looking at Quadpays numbers and Sezzles current market cap given quadpay is growing faster than Sezzles business in a far bigger less tapped market for bnpl, quadpay alone based on metrics we are seeing should be valued at 40-75 percent higher market cap than Sezzle just on current numbers then add in a premium for quad being in a much bigger addressable mkt
and I think goodfella wrote on here once that zip paid way too much for Quad? Huh? We got a steal of a price at 420 million given quads market cap alone should be about 3 billion+ .
I can see this rerating very quickly to a market cap of 6-7 billion or a SP of 10.50 -12 dollars back of the envelope stuff.
I wonder if zip will start adding a line item for UK growth figures.
Super exciting waiting for these results to come out.
Noise about PayPal disrupting the market seem to be all but squashed hey. They have had their product going in the US since November, and while it's not really on the same level as a 1000-1500 dollar account I'm sure they will see phenomenal growth too.
Banks must be really hurting seeing a major trend continue to move to bnpl and squash credit cards.
weve seen them roll out half ass attempts of zero interest credit cards with ludicrous fees; that will surely flop. What's the next move by banks? They tried the campaign of noisy fear mongering in the market. That hasn't worked. They may have to think more openly about joint partnerships given the value add bnpls are offering merchants aboave and beyond just the sale of an item.
Will we see Visa/MasterCard/PayPal acquire a bnpl in 2021; or a Stripe going into acquisition mode? Visa or MasterCard if we could get them as an investor into Zip along with the 4 Percent that Amazon Oz own with their warrants that would meet the desire of a few on here to have a key investor.
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