This company’s projects have been really slow. And I have not looked at them for a long time but a recent refresh shows their time has come and (now we are set) I can say the market has been a bit slow to pick up on it .
1. Long term gas field access confirmed in 2021.
2. Raise done in 2021 getting a troublesome convertible note repaid.
3.Company has freshened up it’s board. The new board members look to be young(er) and commercially experienced from a financial markets point of view. That is not to doubt the Elliot’s engineering and financial skills and resources which have always been particularly interesting and under appreciated.
4. The company is on record saying they expect an announcement about an extension to their Power Purchase Agreement for their Sulawesi Power Plant in May (next month)
5. The demand for electricity in Sulawesi has been transformed over last 5 years by the EV car revolution - Sulawesi produces a lot of the worlds Nickel, Indonesia wants it smelted before export and that takes a lot more electricity.
6. The Russians have also reset the the worlds LNG price multiples higher so their LNG export project should now be pretty easy to get off takes and financing. JKM LNG is about USD 1,200 per ton. With a contract at (say)$500 this should give them $200 EBIT profit per ton on 2m tonnes. That is $400m cash flow.
My early analysis 5 years ago was done on much lower LNG prices.$300…
With a stronger board now in place I think they will be able to get LNG deals done that will unlock significant equity value.
7. Philippines assets are still there waiting commissioning . They will cash flow $50m -$100m quite quickly once the steam turbine is built and the sub station is completed end 2022.(was originally June but that sounds like it’s not happening). So this is another catalyst for 2023 and 2024.
so in summary - on a 24 month view I think this is now a Disallowed. With an easy double this quarter to A$ 0.16.
EWC Price at posting:
7.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
