Time to TO sto, page-17

A share price is a piece of paper that is only worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it at any given time, so you are asking a question that is irrelevant to me. What's more important to me is if can the company remain profitable should oil prices fall to $30, $20 or even $10? And if so, then what is the outlook for their product/service in the near future?

Nobody has a crystal ball but some things are almost certain. Oil demand and middle east supply tension is hotter every year from May to about August when it dies off. Last year was no different. Bearishness on oil is also getting peaky, so I'd give it another month or two before loading up in anticipation of higher oil prices from May-Aug. The catalyst for strong US demand is the memorial day long weekend in the US- 2016 date‎: ‎May 30.

@ HT: The production cost for WPL oil is relevant to a point. I have to get $32 out of mind, which it was circa in 2013 as the chart you pointed to indicated, and this sole basis skews actual overall production cost as WPL's business has transformed into 75% gas related, and 25% crude oil from 50/50.

The price info on page 11 then is also just as interesting. http://www.woodside.com.au/Investor...year results briefing (presentation pack).pdf

If you take the COGS from page 12 and the actual sell prices on page 11, and reduce it by another 45% (Brent's slide since the report), then I'd estimate WPL's average production cost is actually about $10.35 (3 x 5.8, 1 x24.6/4) against average realised revenue of about (Volume weighted average realised prices 53 less 45% = $29.15)

Worst case scenario  - WPL is probably making about 300 million NPAT as opposed to 679 million last half year, which is annually about 600 million. Oil prices would have to hit $10 to $15 for WPL to generate a loss of note or significance.

On that basis it is a screaming BUY. Surely better to buy it at when crude is $30 oil than when it was $110 plus. The complete bearishness on oil is also bullish.