As you know, I was strongly opposed to the first proposal but I am happy to advise, I will be voting "yes" at the meeting on Tuesday.
This offer should have been the original offer presented to CER Holders. Why it wasnt the original offer given to us, Im sure this would be put to the board on Tuesday.
I see the following advantages in accepting the offer:
- No dilution to our NTA.
- The CATS cap is now reduced to a fairly immaterial 6.91% of issued capital. This is almost two thirds less the original 20% proposed
- We have been given a sweetener in that management rights have been internalised and we have acquired the syndicate business both free of charge. Hopefully the syndicate arm of Centro becomes revitalised but even if it doesnt, it cost us nothing. At the very least, we have had the management rights internalised at no cost.
- Div per share for CER holders is now equivalent to 2.32c, an increase from 2.1c. (12.3c forecast div / 5.29) Look forward div yield of CER based on current share price is: 9.2c (2.3c/25c) Peers have current div yield as follows: WRT: 6.7% WDC: 6% GPT: 5.7% GMG: 5.9% If CER were to trade at a div yield of 7% tomorrow, its share price would be 33c. A 6.5% yield would be 35.5c.
- Any takeover activity post merger is likely to take into CRA's net asset value of $2.50. For CER holders this is equivalent to 47.2c. This may very well be higher once Dec 11 valuations are in as cap rates will be more receptive to a Centro group with no going concern issues.
We could continue holding out for a better deal (which may not happen) so I say lets accept this and look forward to the next chapter in Centro's life.
If the secured creditors want to pay CNP shareholders 5c a share to ensure receivership is avoided, that is their perogative as long as CER holders are being looked after adequately in the merged entity.
Also, just want to say well done to all holders on here for putting the blowtorch on the CER board since the merger was first announced. Marathon was just one shareholder that rejected the proposal but collectively we have ensured the original proposal was killed off.
Who is voting yes on Tuesday?
Cheers
CER Price at posting:
25.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held