Hi full tilt,this is a nice observation and looks plausible....

Hi full tilt,

this is a nice observation and looks plausible. Here's the catch. Some years ago, Jiang Zemin, then Chinese President, acting on pressure from America, revalued the Yuan by about 25%- with disasterous results for Chinese exporters. The Chinese remember this- and Zemin is also remembered as a fairly corrupt administrator, who was too easily influenced by the Americans. Moreover, his son was studying in America at the time and this is seen as part of the picture.
Hu Jintao is a very different kettle of fish- he will resist at all costs the impression that he is bowing to American pressure. The recent Chinese trade deficit is a very good example of this, apparently it was heavily manipulated, with the Chinese government buying up massive amounts of capital goods from Germany and France to artificially engineer their first deficit in decades (fact is I can't even remember when they didn't have a surplus). Why? To pour water on the Americans' main argument for forcing them to revalue their currency quickly.

It may happen in the end though- but at Hu Jintao's timing.
This looks to be probably around September, but then only by a modest 5% or so. Nothing dramatic.

Therefore, according to this scenario, JBH has nothing much to worry about from the Chinese side, and whoever is selling on the rumour is only finessing someone else's relatively cheap entry into a quality stock.

Cheers,
JH